Tablet, Slate, iPad, MacTablet Predictions
Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 10:25PM 
Earlier this week Apple made it official. The day I have had on my calendar as the "official rumor date" became real when Apple sent out invitations to dozens, maybe hundreds of media people (See invite, above). I don't know that anything really can be read into the artwork of the invitation, although I am sure many will try. In all likelihood, after we know everything, the invite graphic and words will all make perfect sense. My guess is at the end of this post.
If you don't know the Apple Tablet background story, here is nice summary of how we got to this fever pitch situation of anticipation for the forthcoming Apple-Product-to-Change-the-World.
I now have my countdown on. Tomorrow when I post my Twitter update, it will be 6 DAYS (#6DAYS). I am taking this opportunity to make my iTablet, iSlate, iPad, Macbook predictions:
Prediction #1:Content: Content is the easy prediction. The would-be content providers were the ones to break the story originally. First with that NY Times' Bill Keller spilling the beans with the "impending Apple slate" comment. Since then, it's been a continuous flow of rumor and speculation on how Apple could change the media landscape. This seems like a no-brainer to me. Apple has iTunes, it is the difference maker. Just like iTunes was the difference maker for the iPod over the many mostly nameless MP3 players available back in 2001. All of those Tablets announced at CES were fine, cool looking devices. However, among the pundits I listen to, every positive review seemed to be followed by these two questions:
- "OK, what do we DO with this thing?"
- "How does this compare to what Apple is about to do?"
Next Wednesday, Apple will not only show off the most elegant of Tablet devices, they will explain to us exactly how we can use it to make our lives better. There will be the content, and it will be optimized for this format, in a compelling way. It WILL give us a reason to pay for content again. We will WANT this new exciting format. We will almost immediately see the family fighting over this device. Remember how that family demand evolved with the home computer?
Subscriptions will make a comeback. One of the great aversions subscriptions today, electronic or paper, is managing them. I don't feel like I have all that many, but it still feels like too many. I cannot take having to manage them on all the individual websites. Urgh. I see some relief here from Apple, from iTunes. Just like Paypal has made purchasing from various ecommerce sites, watch iTunes begin to feel like a credit card, in the air (I hate the term cloud), always available as an easy payment method. Remember those rumors of Apple working on a Paypal killer? This is the natural place to bring that functionality into play.
Prediction #2:Keyboard. Of course this Tablet has to have some kind of keyboard. The easy guess is that it will be some variation of the iPhone keyboard. But really? I am going be thumb typing everything? This device is going to be my primary interface with the world, and I have to use my thumbs on glass even morethan I do today? My hands hurt already, I am not going to make it if that is the only answer. Here again I believe that Steve and company will help us. I cannot predict exactly what it will be, but I am betting they address this pain (literally for me). I could see some variation of the bluetooth keyboad that comes with the new iMacs. I could see some other kind of virtual keyboard. Remember the haptic iPhone technology rumors from 2008? I love the idea of this NEW haptic technology that Apple supposedly has a patent for, with a keyboard which will come and go as I need it. That could rock! Anyway, there will be SOMETHING cool with keyboards in the tablet that I predict will help my thumb tendonitis.
Prediction #3:Connectivity. One of the really nice features of the Kindle is the permanent connectivity capability. Any iPhone user just LOVES the idea of having a device that has the persistent internet connection without having to pay EVEN MORE monthly subscription fees (see Prediction #2). I am going to get this device, but I am NOT excited add more to the blood money I pay every month to AT&T for my data plans (and don't get me started about their family plans). So I will have one for myself. Immeidately, the family will start pulling it away from me for themselves. I sure cannot see buying two or more of these devices and have even MORE data plans. If it wasn't for the steep data plan toll, everyone in my family would already have their own iPhones. This has GOT to stop. And now is the time. You have to believe that believe that Apple is in an ideal bargaining position with wireless companies around the world, and especially here in the US. AT&T has to want to keep their goose that lays the golden eggs. You know Verizon would love a few of those eggs themselves.
Something will be done here. One though I had was for the Tablet to be able to do some kind of tethering, out of the box. How sweet would that be? It would be a terrific use of my unlimited data which I am sure I barely scratch the surface of. This would also be a terrific use of the purported "iPhone Nano", as some kind of specific tethering phone. Now THAT is a phone I would put in the hands of the whole family. I am sure this tablet couldn't work on a free plan, like that which comes with the Kindle. However, either Apple or their carrier partner has to address the potential for outrageous data expenses. If they don't it will put an artifical govenor on the potential exponential growth possibilities for this thing.
Prediction #4:Something for the App Developers. As I look back at the evolution of the Mac and forward to the future of the iPhone, I have to admit I get a small pit in my stomach. With all the grief that Apple has taken for the App Store acceptance policies, and with the continuing expansion of the Andriod platform, I woried about the iPhone developers. I think back to the original Mac vs. PC wars of the early 90's and have concern that the developers will slowly migrate to the more "open" Android platform to escape the dreaded App store review process. I am not so worried today about mass iPhone abandonment, like we saw with Mac developers (many of whom have come back by the way). Like in the PC space, there can certainly be a comfortable market penetration for Apple where they can continue to reap profits. But what can Apple do to keep the "i" platform "the" platform? How can they make this platorm the preferred platform above all others? For now, it's easy. The iPhone/iPod Touch market is the biggest App platform with the largest customer base. However, it is completely conceivable that the Android customer base could surpass the iPhone's. It is in Apple's great best interest to keep the best developers, and the best Apps, on their platform.
Here is where Apple's purchase of Quattro Wireless comes in. With Quattro, Apple can provide developers an easy way to insert ad (revenue) opportunities, in the application. I can even see tools right in the SDK. I am not a developer, and I cannot provide the specifics of how this could work. We may not even see the specifics until WWDC. But there is certainly a reason Apple wanted Ad Mob, and purchased Quattro. I do not believe Apple's aim is to get into Google's core ad business as a primary business. It would make sense that they are just trying to ensure they continue to grow the community and keep eveyone's interests in line. Happy developers, making money, keeps a community thriving.
One Final Prediction: Name: Pallet (get it? from the invite graphic?)
SIX DAYS!
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